Mayor Rob Ford Is Headed For Defeat In 2014

Nothing is ever certain, but as it stands, Rob Ford would lose almost any conceivable election for Mayor if held today. It is not useful to cower in fear from the far overblown "Ford Nation" and act like Toronto is doomed to "Ford more years."  It isn't, and Ford should at this point be understood as the underdog.  The fading longshot.

Before I talk numbers, including the infamous Halloween poll which found his approval jumped 5% after the Police confirmed they have the crack video, it's useful to note that Rob Ford effectively campaigns all the time.  Only 2 opponents of his have announced, and neither is "campaigning" except to the extent Stintz can try to claim credit for the Scarborough subway extension.  The point here is that Ford is already doing his utmost to raise his numbers, and even before the crack scandal was barely keeping his head above water.  He hasn't been above 50% approval since his first few months in office. This isn't usual - David Miller had 69% approval as late as 2005, and was said to have "plummetted' to 43% after the garbage strike in 2009.  Way earlier, his approval was in the 80s. Mel Lastman was re-elected with 80% of the vote in 2000.  Municipal politics can be pretty easy, keep basic services running and keep reasonably clean and most voters will be fine with you.  Ford's even arguably done the former, yet failed so badly at the latter that, well, let's see...

The 31 October 44% Approval Poll Revisited

Initially there was some reason to doubt a poll taken on Halloween night when huge demographics are too busy handing out or gathering candy to take pollster calls, but several subsequent Forum polls find approximately the same 43-44% approval.  These same polls showing a 5% increase in Ford's approval to 44% also find 60% want him to resign.  That isn't just people who "disapprove" but actively think he should quit now.  Eric of 308 looks at this and figures that the Oct 30 poll finding Ford's approval at 39% is probably the outlier.

 About Forum's October 30th poll just the day before?  Couple items of interest:

 The key here is that the number of people very firmly negative on Ford is greater than the total number of supporters, even lukewarm ones.  Even if you conclude this poll is an outlier and add 5% to Ford's numbers.  Ford's "base" here is that 18% who think he might be one of Toronto's "best" mayors. 39% go into this election outright unpersuadable and basically no one is truly undecided.  There's nothing for Ford to work with here.

Ford has been pushing this nonsense for months now, and despite only some bloggers challenging it to that point (The Star weighs in since with an excellent effort in the genre), voters are generally rejecting it. Again, not helpful when trying to dig out from a personal scandal when your primary economic/fiscal argument is pre-rejected.

It gets worse, Forum also polled the subway/LRT question again on Oct 30 and this too is a nail in Ford's coffin:

This was supposed to be Ford's other big policy success and at best it's a wash.  It's really amazing that this happened given the almost total lack of an organized pro-LRT advocacy in the face of Ford's camp's, and the Provincial & Federal Tories lying about it.  That video of Matlow embarassing Ford in the May council debate went viral, and probably helped, but I really wonder if voters dislike Ford so much they questioned their own approval of subways in the face of his puerile "subways subways subways" jingoism.  Ford was going to ride his subway success to re-election but voters aren't nearly so keen on it as he thought.

Not Done Yet

Forum has been polling head-to-head matches of various kinds for several years, with various names against Ford, including 3 way and 4 way match ups.  Ford's troubles are much older than a crack tape:

 

Ford has lost EVERY poll against either Karen Stintz or Olivia Chow going back to early 2012.  He loses almost every match against John Tory too, meaning there are multiple people who can unseat him and one has already announced she's in (Stintz).  What about the dreaded vote-splitting in multi-way races?

Note the dates here - this is the same night as the 44% approval poll, and yet Ford only musters 33% against Stintz - a 7% drop in 24hrs.  Going back to the theory that the Oct 30 poll was an "outlier" in undersampling Ford supporters in some way, it's remarkable that the number of people prepared to vote for Ford is higher than the next night which finds this "jump" in his approval.    

Seven polls of 3-way races and Ford loses all but one.  Chow wins every poll when she's in it.  The news gets a little more ambiguous on the four-way races (though Ford usually doesn't win), I will only show one (lots more here) for discussion:

Again from the same night as the 44% approval and Ford ceilings at 33% support.  Tied with Chow, who as noted above is not actively campaigning. Unlike Ford.  

Four Way Finish Highly Unlikely

The key problem with 3 and particularly 4 way races is that they almost never finish that way.  It's the nature of first-past-the-post voting systems. 3rd and 4th place challengers usually get irrelevant and their support evaporates. They drop out entirely, or maybe limp to the finish with little money.  2010 was quite rare that Pantalone managed a double-digit third place finish.  Rocco Rossi, despite ample coverage dropped under 1% for 4th place. In 2003, 3rd place went to a pre-amalgamation Old Toronto Mayor, Barbara Hall, with under 10% and 4th at 5% to a pretty prominent former Liberal MP & cabinet minister, John Nunziata.  

You really don't find many viable 3-way races, and I didn't find any 4-way ones where 4th place took more than a small chunk of the vote.  Interestingly, 2003's split (with left candiate Hall in 3rd) still elected centre-left "downtown" candidate David Miller, so the idea that a split will re-elect Rob Ford is not some inevitability. 

What If Ford Goes To Rehab?

Forum (I wish someone else would poll Toronto) treated us the breathtaking revelation that "Ford wins races if he goes to rehab" in this November 6th release. 

Again Ford cannot even reach 40% support even if he goes to rehab. This of course is a big "if" and it requires some measure of success - Ford not only has to go to rehab, but he can't have a subsequent episode like the Danforth.  As above, this is the support of a candidate who is already campaigning for months against people who are respecting the laws governing when they can campaign. 

The Usual Anti-Polling Excuses

Of course these are just polls and the usual unthinking anti-empiricism can be thrown at them ("remember BC's election?"  "Tell that to Premier Danielle Smith in Alberta!").  You can ignore polling I guess, but then you have zero basis for predicting elections or even reading current voter opinions.  Polling isn't perfect, but it's what we have.
 
Ford can of course win re-election. Maybe. If the stars align.  If scandal befalls his closest rival.  If the Police suddenly announce his full exoneration in their investigation.  If, if, if.  A set of unlikely things has to happen to get Ford over the finish line.  But with scandals a daily event and no sign of stopping, and his primary policy arguments neutered even before his adversaries attack them, it's difficult to see where he can turn to.  None of this means you have to like Stintz, Tory or Chow but the main point here is that we can defeat Ford resoundingly, and maybe even knock off some of his main council allies & enablers.  That would be a defeat not just for Ford, but Fordism, the politics of urban/suburban division and hatred.  That alone would be a big improvement and worth working for.  It's time to think big and run the score.  Ford is losing and that can be used to make some real change on Council too.

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Old Toronto & East York Have Been Shut Out During Ford Mayoralty

Nothing about Ford's substance abuse & possible legal problems has changed the basic problems at the heart of his governing which make him a destructive presence corroding the basic social fabric of the city.  He fundamentally and deliberately seeks to divide the city against itself to win elections.  As he campaigns continuously, it is not just a question of running ugly capaigns and then seeking to heal the rifts once in office, it's what he really wants to do, and has done thus far in his Mayoralty.

To see the most glaring instance of this, which pervades the entire system of Toronto's government let's ask how the Mayor, and this Council have allocated the key committee and commission/board roles during Ford's term.  We'll look at the Executive Committee (closest thing to a cabinet in Council), the Budget Committee, and the Councillor members of the TTC Commission and Police Services Board, which represent the two biggest cost items in Toronto's budget.  These bodies make the most important decisions as to how Toronto governs, funds, transports & Polices itself.  Here's the result, tracked by Council ward (some Councillor are on multiple things, and this includes both past and present members of these bodies):

Major council roles, Dec 2010-Oct 2013

Notice the complete lack of any coloured markers in the wards representing the pre-amalgamation cities of Toronto ("Old Toronto") and East York.  Entirely shut out.  This is what the next Mayor, a new Mayor, has to fix.  We cannot go on like this.

 

Notes/Caveats:

• I use the "Community Council" groupings to decide what former city a given ward falls under. Some wards, like say 26 span more than 1 of the pre-amalgamation cities.
• I'm not the first to do this sort of post, but I am trying to extend further that excellent analysis.  I do rely on the information from that post.  
• In 2012, Council dismissed Ford's original TTC board and put their own up. Those members are not represented in this map, but in fact adding them would not change anything as no one from Old Toronto or East York is amoung the new board.

Not all of this is Ford's fault, but it is clear that this is deliberate on his part.  Council for their part, has not rectified this complete shut out from the committees of greatest import, despite multiple opportunities with even 1 token appointment to anything.  In fact, just recently, to fill a vacant Executive Committee slot, some on Council tried to get downtown Councillor Adam Vaughan appointed but failed to win a majority and instead, Ford put the brand new, unelected "caretaker" Councillor for Ward 3, Peter Leon on his executive.

Maybe pushing an unwelcome adversary onto the executive is not the way to rectify this, but clearly if council wanted to ensure every region of the City was represented, it could have put one on the new TTC board, for example.

So? Miller Snubbed the Suburbs Just the Same!

No, he didn't:

Key council roles, actual or offered, 2006-2010

This is for Miller's second term, where he was confortably re-elected with a strong majority of the electorate.  Yet every region of the city is represented in Council's key posts. In particular, every former city is represented on Miller's executive committee.  Does this mean Miller was a great Mayor and we should just re-elect him?  No. It just means it doesn't have to be like this under Ford.  Winning the Mayor's chair does not require trying to divide the city.  Ford has chosen to be this way.  Here's Miller's 2006 election map:

Ok, that was Miller's re-election when he was quite popular.  What about his initial election, a very competitive race against John Tory?

Yes Miller's support was stronger downtown, but he did pretty good in some other less urban parts of the city.  Now here's Ford's map:

Other than Karen Stintz in ward 16 (a "North York" ward), not a single councillor from a ward won by Smitherman got any of the key council roles.  Far from seeking to heal this rift (one which of course pre-dates Ford) he reinforces it. By all indications, barring his substance problems derailing his 2014 campaign it will be more of this. 

Many focus on Ford's various offensive comments, like blaming cyclists for getting hurt in accidents, or saying that the "downtown people have enough subways" despite the clear and obvious overcrowding problems on the Yonge line south of Eglinton station. These sorts of downtown-bashing comments are representative of his views, but pale in comparison to literally locking out over 30% of the people of the city from any voice in the most important governing bodies.  This is representative democracy and of course the result of this is going to be a disproportionate emphasis on the areas of the city that are overrepresented in decision making bodies at expense of those shut out.

Quantifying the Lock Out

While Ford's map displays obvious regional favouritism, Miller's map would seem to somewhat favour Old Toronto.  It does, but some numbers would be helpful, here's the raw number of key roles alloted to councillors from each former city under Ford and Miller's 2nd term:

That's somewhat helpful, York and East York are quite small compared to others, it's hard to tell which areas are represented proportionately to their populations. Let's compare each former city's percentage of the total population, and the percentage of these key roles they got by Mayor:

So, as you'd expect, Ford has frozen out Old TO and EY, and given the extra spots to the more suburban former cities. How does Miller's chart look?

Ok, Old Toronto is somewhat overrepresented, but the supposed "downtown" mayor was pretty fair to the 3 suburban former cities. Scarborough even comes out a little ahead.

Let's stack these up, each administration saw certain areas over and underrepresented, who does worse?

 

There's just no contest.  Miller's "most excluded" city, Etobicoke does a hell of a lot better than the two cities Ford locked out completely.  If Miller did favour Old Toronto, he didn't favour them as much as Ford has privileged Etobicoke, Scarborough and York (York is kind of skewed by Frances Nunziata).  

Some of these is just natural.  Miller is on the left so he's going to somewhat prefer Councillors of a similar persuasion on his key committees.  Ford is on the right, and will feel the same. Right leaning councillors will tend to be suburban.  Left leaning ones more urban.  Yet it shouldn't be allowed to go this far.  Stephen Harper put a major city candidate into the Senate and his cabinet just to ensure some kind of urban representation after his party didn't win any seats in Toronto, Montreal or Vancouver in 2006.  No Ontario cabinet would skip having a northern or south-western member if the Premier could possibly avoid it.  Yet there's no sign that Ford even had talks with any Old Toronto councillor to see if they could come to an understanding that would let them work together.  Miller had a Scarborough councillor turn him down for a seat on the Executive.  It happens, but it is important he offered it (even though he had other Scarborough Exec members).

There are of course other metrics of inclusiveness than geography. Ford's current executive now infamously doesn't include any female councillors despite this council having record (but still unacceptably low) numbers of them.  But region is a pretty vital one so long as we govern ourselves by a single member district council, instead of say, some kind of proportional representation party system.  Councillors will favour their wards in their decisions.  That's their strong incentive.  Letting this kind of disparity occur is going to lead to unhealthy outcomes.  To the extent that Ford has deliberately allowed and caused this to happen, is all the more reason why he cannot be Toronto's next Mayor. We need a Mayor for the whole city, not just their favourite parts.  

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